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Monday, March 3, 2008

Weekly Stock Market Newsletter March 03

The Week Ahead: The credit contraction continues to threaten corporate profits going forward especially financial companies as they led the market down again this past week. With oil priced over $100 now, the inventory report on Wednesday takes on more meaning. The ISM Manufacturing Index will be watched on Monday. The Fed's beige book and factory orders are released on Wednesday. Pending home sales and chain store sales are due Thursday, but the most important report will be Friday' employment numbers.

Stocks to Watch: All 30 Dow Industrials were down on Friday in the markets sudden downspout. Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), American Express (AXP), Caterpillar (CAT), and Boeing were among the hardest hit. R.H. Donnelley (RHD) which publishes yellow pages suffered another downgrade as the stock continues its spiral downward. Bucking the market's trend on strong earnings and revenue growth was Universal Health Services (UHS), CommScope (CTV), and FTI Consulting (FCN).

Special Note: The 3.3 year cycle low reported here previously is due by week's end, but many times the timing of its low can be off by a month or so. Being that March is the end of a quarter, it's possible the final low for this cycle will hit in early April. The Nasdaq is the first of the 3 major indexes to break both its February and January lows as the market took a decided turn for the worse on Friday. The wedge pattern the market has formed recently has taken the path of the trend that preceded it, down, which is technically correct.


Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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