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Monday, March 24, 2008

Weekly Stock Trading Newsletter, March 24

The Week Ahead: Leading economic indicators showed a fifth straight monthly decline confirming the economic slump. With this data now widely known, will the markets start looking ahead to a possible recovery? Existing home sales are due on Monday. Consumer confidence figures are out on Tuesday. New home sales and durable goods numbers are reported Wednesday while the final 4th quarter GDP is released Thursday. Friday brings the personal income and spending reports along with consumer sentiment.

Stocks to Watch: Credit Suisse (CS) management warned it may post its first quarterly loss in 5 years, but the stock has been resilient to bad news of late. Winnebago Industries (WGO) showed only .09 a share compared to .24 in its 2nd quarter do to fewer motor home sales caused by tough economic times and high gasoline prices. Long term the chart looks weak for this stock. The Children's Place Retail Stores (PLCE) reported weak earnings but traded up on a pending deal to sell its Disney store chain back to Disney.

Special Note: The Dow Jones Industrials have not broken the January lows on an intra-day basis despite the dramatic news in the financial sector a week ago while most other major indexes have. This sets up a possible inter-market bullish divergence if the next sell-off in the market does not produce a new low for the DOW. This will be watched closely as seasonal factors such as retirement contributions in April could influence the market positively and then the economic stimulus package checks go out in May.


Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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