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Monday, April 14, 2008

Weekly Stock Market Trading Newsletter, April 14

The Week Ahead: Earnings season starts off poorly with General Electric missing its guidance numbers, a sign that even well diversified companies are being impacted by the credit crises. With consumer sentiment continuing to drop as well, watch the retail sales and business inventory numbers on Monday. The PPI is released on Tuesday while the CPI, housing starts, and the Fed's beige book of economic activity are released on Wednesday. Finally, the leading economic indicators and jobless claims are due Thursday.

Stocks to Watch: Continental Resources (CLR) continued its upward move after a report that its Bakken field has 3 to 4 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the North Dakota/ Montana area. Higher commodity prices may be hurting Hershey Co. (HSY) as a major brokerage downgraded it. Another downgrade occurred at Johnson Controls (JCI) because of slowing North American construction orders. Ixia (XXIA) which makes internet test systems lowered it 1st Q earnings estimates from a previous forecast as the stock gapped lower.

Special Note: If the major market averages can withstand the onslaught of earnings reports over the next two weeks without making new lows, then in all likelihood a new up cycle will have started. Further evidence will be another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve by months end which will add fuel to a positive technical backdrop. Also the anticipated economic spurt caused by the tax rebate checks that will go out in May might not be fully discounted by the markets yet.


Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.


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