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Tuesday, May 27, 2008

NobleTrading Weekly Market Letter, May 27, 2008

The Week Ahead: The DOW had its worst week since February as housing prices declined nationally by 8%, gas prices hit new records, and word that more write-downs are coming at some banks and investment houses. Watch for the Case-Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday along with new home sales figures and consumer confidence. Durable goods numbers are due Wednesday, and preliminary GDP for Q1 are due Thursday. Personal income and spending are released Friday along with May's Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final reading.

Stocks to Watch: Universal Corp. (UVV) in the leaf tobacco business dropped hard through its 200 day moving average after reporting revenue fell 7.3% and earnings were .21 lower than a year ago. Vivus, Inc. (VVUS) had positive mid-stage trials of its Qnexa drug showing promise in treating diabetes and obesity. The stock has pushed up strongly from the $5 level. Hurco Companies (HURC) an industrial technology stock missed estimates for Q2 earnings and may find support in the mid 30's. Del Monte (DLM) was downgraded from neutral to sell.

Special Note: A recap of 1st quarter earnings shows that energy and technology companies led the S&P 500 with 28% and 18% returns respectively while financials led the way on the downside. One interesting note though is that ex-financials the S&P 500 earnings would have rose 10% in the 1st quarter as opposed to a minus 16% decline overall. This shows how heavily weighted the S&P 500 is with financial companies and how vulnerable the index could be to the downside if the credit markets deteriorate further.


Commentary Provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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