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Monday, June 23, 2008

Stock Market Newsletter, June 23, 2008

The Week Ahead: Stock markets continue to be under pressure as oil surges and a spike up in commodity prices pinches consumer budgets. Now a possible military showdown between Israel and Iran could be looming. The Case Shiller Index for home prices and consumer confidence numbers are due out on Tuesday. The FOMC's decision on interest rates comes Wednesday in addition to the durable goods and new home sales numbers. The 1st Q final GDP is due Thursday while personal income and spending numbers are released Friday.

Stocks to Watch: Many regional banks were downgraded by Merrill Lynch including Wachovia Bank (WB), but some banks rallied when SunTrust Banks (STI) said its dividend would not be cut despite increased second quarter charge-offs. Western Union (WU) raised its long term growth target and boosted its stock buyback by $1 billion. Tenneco (TEN) shares dropped due to the slumping U.S. auto market, but may be reaching oversold levels. A major brokerage started coverage on Intrepid Potash (IPI), a relatively new fertilizer stock.

Special Note: An interesting technical formation on the Dow Industrials chart shows its lowest weekly close of the year as the DJIA attempts a retest of its January and March lows. A look at the other two major indexes in comparison indicates the DOW leading the charge down as the S&P 500 and especially the technology driven Nasdaq are not nearly as close to their respective lows for the year. A potential positive divergence could be setting up if the Dow breaks to new lows without confirmation by the other two.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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