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Monday, June 9, 2008

Stock Market Weekly Letter, June 9, 2008

The Week Ahead: The price of oil had its biggest one day spike ever on the same day unemployment was reported to have the biggest one month increase in 22 years. A perfect storm of bad news for the economy. Important to watch will be Tuesday's trade balance and Ben Bernanke's keynote address on inflation in Boston. The Fed's beige book of economic activity will be released on Wednesday as will OPEC's oil report. Retail sales, jobless claims, and business inventories are due Thursday while the CPI report is released Friday.

Stocks to Watch: MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG) was downgraded again on a poor outlook for mortgage insurers for the next two years. Inspire Pharmaceuticals (ISPH) surged on news that a recent study showed treatment for cystic fibrosis improved breathing significantly. Focus Media (FMCN), A digital ad company in China, showed a 1st quarter loss versus a profit from a year ago and cut its 2008 revenue target do to the recent earthquake that has disrupted operations and hurt results.

Special Note: One divergence of note is the recent highs that were made in the Russell 2000 Index and Nasdaq indexes that have gone unconfirmed thus far by the Dow Industrials or the S&P 500. In fact lower lows are starting to be made in the latter two. Another technical observation is the CBOE Put/Call Ratio Composite which is a near term measure of market sentiment. This indicator is near the levels that it was at the October 2007 peak indicating another market peak may have passed with the potential for lower lows coming.


Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.


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