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Tuesday, August 19, 2008

NobleTrading Weekly Market Newsletter, August 19, 2008

The Week Ahead: The recent rise in the value of the dollar could mean lower commodity prices and inflation and thus better prospects for profit margins. Technology related stocks are receiving the greater benefit as measured by the Nasdaq's relative performance. Reports to watch are the NAHB housing index on Monday, housing starts and the PPI on Tuesday, oil and gas inventories on Wednesday, and jobless claims along with the leading economic indicators for July on Thursday.

Stocks to Watch: Berkshire Hathaway raised its stake in NRG Energy (NRG) buying 3.3 million shares in the Texas power producer. SunPower Corp. (SPWR) reached a multi month high after receiving a big deal to supply solar power to PG&E Corp. which helped propel the whole solar sector. Autodesk (ADSK) nearly reached its 200 day moving average after beating 2Q earnings estimates and a brokerage upgrade. Lifeway Foods (LWAY) was downgraded after missing 2Q estimates while Orient Express Hotels (OEH) was upgraded by Merrill Lynch.

Special Note: From the July 15 low the three majors DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are four weeks into there recent uptrend. This summer rally could extend to the Labor Day holiday but appears to need a rest near term as some stochastic measures are rolling over. One area of resistance to watch is if the S&P 500 closes above its 200 week moving average at approximately 1325. This may signal the beginning of more aggressive short selling as the market transitions from bullish behavior to bearish continuing the trend of lower lows.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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