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Monday, August 25, 2008

Stock Market Weekly Newsletter, August 25, 2008

The Week Ahead: The combination of the big drop in the price of oil and Fed chairman Bernanke's soothing words that inflation would moderate with no need to raise interest rates sparked a week end rebound in stocks. Watch for existing homes sales numbers on Monday, new home sales figures and the Case Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday, durable goods numbers on Wednesday, the preliminary 2nd quarter GDP release on Thursday, and finally the personal income and spending numbers as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.

Stocks to Watch: The oil price drop sparked rallies in the airline sector with the stocks of AMR, CAL, UAUA, and LCC participating, but all are well above there July lows. Toro Co. (TTC) came in above earnings estimates for their 3rd quarter surging the stock off of a recent low. Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) came in light on their 2nd quarter earnings as same store sales fell 1% and gave a cautious view on the second half of 08'. Takeover speculation seems to have sparked shares of Akamai Technologies (AKAM) but nothing specific came out.

Special Note: A favorable psychological environment appears to be developing in the minds of investors as the value of the dollar strengthens with the sharp break in the price of oil. With interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future, stock speculation may boost the major indexes higher before the summer ends. Caution, however, is still warranted with so many financial related companies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on the skids while others continue to find new losses on their balance sheets.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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