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Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Weekly Stock Trader Newsletter, 2 September, 2008

The Week Ahead: A pick-up in trading activity is in store for this week as the vacation season comes to an end on Wall Street. The choppy rally that began on July 15 will be watched closely for a continuation into the first half of September. Key reports this week include: construction spending and ISM Manufacturing on Tuesday, factory orders on Wednesday, chain store sales and 2Q productivity on Thursday, and the all important August employment report on Friday.

Stocks to Watch: Genesco Inc. (GCO), a specialty retailer, beat second quarter estimates by a good margin as the stock continues its strong performance from the March low. PetSmart (PETM) came in ahead of estimates for its second quarter, but the stock could hit resistance at 28 after 7 strong weeks in an uptrend. Recent upgrades by major brokerages include Excel Maritime Carriers (EXM) and Eagle Materials (EXP) with the latter near resistance. On the flipside, International Paper (IP) was downgraded.

Special Note: The presidential election campaign season kicks in full gear this week and thus the markets volatility is expected to increase ahead of the November 4 Election Day. Furthermore the peak in the major indexes that occurred last October appears to be a major one as the Dow Industrials have been stair stepping lower from the 14,198 peak with each 1000 point level beneath the peak eventually setting up as resistance when the market bounces. If the DOW approaches 12,000 look for another top to form.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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