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Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Weekly Market Newsletter, 10 October 2008

The Week Ahead: News of a worsening employment situation overshadowed the final passing by Congress of the long anticipated financial sector bailout package as markets continued the plunge to new lows. The FOMC Minutes from the last Fed Meeting are released on Tuesday while pending home sales are due Wednesday. Wholesale trade inventories are out on Thursday. Watch for the import price report and trade balance figures on Friday as well as chain store sales.

Stocks to Watch: General Growth Strategies (GGP) which specializes in retail mall properties has been under pressure do to the widening credit crisis, but a new CEO and takeover speculation may provide hope for a turn in the stock. First Industrial Realty Trust (FR) cut their 2008 earnings forecast in half as the stock accelerated to new lows. Penn National Gaming (PENN) cut its Q3 revenue guidance and was downgraded causing further declines in its share price to lower lows from last year's peak.

Special Note: A near term capitulation in selling could be developing as markets open this week. World markets are making lower lows along with the U.S. The break in prices below 10,800 on the Dow Industrials now opens the door for a move to the 9600 area which is where a very long term internal trend line dating back to 1896 is currently at on logarithmic charts. If so, then 10,800 will become resistance. The next Federal Reserve meeting is October 29, but some believe an interest rate cut is needed before this.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading .com, Inc.

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