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Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Weekly Stock Market Letter, 3 November 2008

The Week Ahead: A continuation of the see-saw action in stock prices is likely as November trading begins. One positive for consumers despite record low sentiment numbers is the rapid decline in oil prices and therefore gasoline at the pump. All eyes are on Election Day this Tuesday. Any surprises will only help to create more up and down volatility. Factory orders will also be out on Tuesday. On Thursday chain store sales will hint at any consumer vitality. Finally, by Friday, another potentially problematic employment report is released.

Stocks to Watch: Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) beat earnings estimates for Q3 even though they were lower than a year ago, but the stock has already more than doubled its recent low from just 5 days ago. Carnival Corp. (CCL) cut its 2009 dividend in order to build up cash reserves so that it would not have to tap the weak capital markets. Jm Smucker (SJM) will close on the spin-off of Folgers from Procter and Gamble on Wednesday after which its stock will be added to the S&P 500 Index.

Special Note: As this weeks Presidential Election unfolds, a triangle or flag pattern appears to be developing on the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 Index. The entire trading range since the October 10 low and October 14 high has been between these two price points. With each successive lower high and higher low the market makes from here the triangle will reach its pinnacle point. The direction from there is usually the final move of the trend that preceded it which in this case is down to new lows. A move above 9795 on the DOW or 1045 on the S&P 500 would negate this pattern.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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