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Monday, July 13, 2009

Weekly Market Update Letter, July 13, 2009

The Week Ahead: A drop in world markets, a decline in June consumer sentiment, and growing uncertainty over upcoming earnings reports are just some of the negatives putting pressure on the markets recently. Watch the retail sales report, the PPI, and business inventory numbers that come out on Tuesday. The CPI and industrial production calculations arrive on Wednesday while the jobless claims and housing starts numbers are released Thursday and Friday respectively.

Stocks to Watch: The big bank earnings reporting season begins with Goldman Sachs (GS) on Tuesday. Look for potential disappointments to further destabilize markets going forward. Navigant Consulting (NCI), a global consulting firm was upgraded by JMP Securities because of good cost controls and good employee retention numbers. Fertilizer stocks such as Potash Saskatchewan (POT) and others...AGU, IPI, MOS... were hurt when India purchased potash from a large Russian firm at a steep discount to what major producers are asking.

Special Note: The financial stocks again could be leading the market lower and look vulnerable to another downside move in the weeks and months ahead as they did a year ago. One ominous sign is the banking indexes which topped in early May and have recently broken a support shelf on its chart ahead of the S&P 500. Similarly, a homebuilders index (XHB) sports a pattern that suggests that the worst is yet to come. Both of these groups are critical in restoring the credit markets the Feds having been trying to revive.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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