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Monday, August 10, 2009

Stock Market Weekly Update, August 10, 2009

The Week Ahead: The slowing pace of unemployment helped knock the rate down to 9.4% carrying markets higher still from the July 8 low. Markets will watch the wholesale trade numbers on Tuesday as well as the start of the FOMC meeting. The International trade numbers come out on Wednesday and the decision on interest rate policy by the FOMC will follow. Thursday brings the jobless claims figure, retail sales, and import prices. Friday the Consumer Price Index is released.

Stocks to Watch: FBL Financial Group reach an incredible 800% gain from its March low after beating Q2 estimates because they had fewer losses in their investment portfolio. Monster Worldwide (MWW) rose strongly after its own employment index had its smallest drop in 4 months. Green Mountain Roasters (GMCR) will offer 5 million common shares @67.25 per share to help repay debt. Hansen Natural (HANS) lifted over 17% after strong Q2 earnings and their Monster energy drink being a big hit.

Special Note: The S&P 500 has increased over 50% since the March low, one of the fastest on record. The Daily Sentiment Index reached a lofty 88% bulls among S&P traders. Compare this to only 2% bulls in early March. Investors can see the value of this one indicator alone albeit a contrary one in helping to guide buy or sell decisions. Certainly it is flashing 'caution ahead' for stocks as sentiment is at the same levels that occurred in October 2007.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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