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Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Weekly Stock Market Update, August 3, 2009

The Week Ahead: Gross Domestic Product fell four quarters in a row for the first time since the 1930's even though Q2 came in less than expected. Current expectations are for GDP to expand slightly by year end but with more job losses. Look for construction spending numbers due out on Monday. Personal income and pending home sales data is due out on Tuesday. Factory orders and jobless claims figures come out Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The all important employment report is released Friday.

Stocks to Watch: Drew Industries (DW) reported positive earnings for Q2 despite expectations for a loss. The RV component maker is gaining market share. Beckman Coulter (BEC) surged as it boosted full year earnings per share guidance due to a lower tax rate and cost cutting. Synaptics (SYNA) shares plummeted despite Q4 numbers beating estimates. It was the Q1 revenue outlook that stunned investors. Anadys Pharmaceuticals (ANDS), in a more speculative play jumped sharply as its hepatitis C drug got an FDA nod to proceed with mid-stage trials.

Special Note: As the second significant leg up since the March low unfolds for the major indexes, investors should be on the alert for divergences against the current trend. The main one being the KBW Regional Bank Index as evidenced by the streetTracks (KRE). Despite 8 straight days higher, the index is still substantially below its May high. Bank stocks are key in that they have been ahead of the major declines in the market since the 2007 top.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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