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Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Stock Market Newsletter, September 8, 2009

The Week Ahead: Unemployment continues an upward trend reaching 9.7%, but the pace of job loss slowed down to 216,000 in August. Healthcare reform will be top priority as congressional lawmakers return to D.C. on Tuesday. The Feds beige book of economic activity is released Wednesday with a scheduled primetime address by the President later that day. Jobless claims are due Thursday while wholesale trade numbers and import prices come out on Friday.

Stocks to Watch: Bridgepoint Education (BPI) took a nosedive after a government audit of its Ashford University campus may get a Department of Education non-compliance notice for misuse of federal student aid. Cascade Corp. (CASC) showed a larger than expected Q2 loss but part of it was due to a non-recurring restructuring cost so the stock rose. Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) continues a torrent rise as takeover speculation was noted by the Leerink Swann brokerage.

Special Note: The current PE of 17 on the S&P 500 is historically overvalued. The American Association of Independent Investors (AAII) recently showed only 19% bears which is where it was at the all-time high. Insiders are selling at 28 times the amount they are buying. Speculation in low priced stocks such as FNMA, Freddy Mac, and Citicorp reached as high as 25% of NYSE volume. Interesting trivia, September has not marked a high in the DOW in any given year since 1978, but has marked a high 9 times since 1896. It may be due.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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