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Monday, December 21, 2009

Stock Market Weekly Update, December 21

The Week Ahead: A shortened holiday week with decreasing volume will be the trading environment the next four days with a similar pattern likely in the final week of this year and decade. Reports to watch are Tuesday's final GDP number for the third quarter and the existing home sales figure. Wednesday look for new home sales data along with the personal income and spending numbers. The week ends Thursday with weekly jobless claims and the Durable Goods report for November.

Stocks to Watch: Patient investors may want to take a look at bank stock State Street Corp. (STT) according to the Keefe Bruyette brokerage who upgraded the stock which recently corrected. On the contrary, C.R. Bard (BCR) was downgraded by Standard and Poors on the belief that medical device makers face tough head winds in the coming year. Trucking company Con-Way (CNW) was upgraded to a buy by BB&T but the stock has already moved 34% in the last three weeks. Finally, an EU panel has recommended Amgen's (AMGN) osteoporosis drug for approval, and so far the stock lifted only marginally.

Special Note: The technical picture for stock indexes in general show a probable push to higher highs into January, but it strongly appears to be an exhaustive move in a 10 month long rally. From a world perspective, the following pattern is evolving from east to west. Shanghai in China (8/4/09 peak), Nikkei in Japan (8/31/09 peak), KOSPI in South Korea (9/23/09 peak) ASX in Australia (10/21/09) peak, Hang Seng in Hong Kong (11/18/09 top), FTSE in London (11/16/09 top). Markets here in the U.S. and Brazil appear to be topping with seasonal strength in small caps etc. providing some underlying strength.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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