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Monday, January 11, 2010

NobleTrading Market Update, January 11, 2010

The Week Ahead: A busy economic calendar could bring many cross currents to stock prices after an upward advance in week one of the new year. After Tuesday's Trade Balance numbers, the Fed's Beige Book will be released on Wednesday. Retail sales figures will be closely watched on Thursday as well as Business Inventories in the post holiday season. Friday precedes a three day holiday weekend, but ends with the CPI report, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and the Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

Stocks to Watch: Earnings reports begin this week with Alcoa (AA) on Monday. Steel stocks: US Steel (X ), Ak Steel (AKS), Nucor (NUE), and Worthington Ind. (WOR) continued to accelerate on bullish analyst calls for a pick up in production on firming prices. Palm Inc. (PALM) announced at the Consumer Electronics Show that it will sell smart phones through Verizon Wireless and shot up 11% on 3 times normal volume. Best Buy (BBY), despite a 9% increase in consumer sales, sold off as mostly lower profit margin items were purchased.

Special Note: Seasonal bullish forces maintained the upper hand in stocks out of the gate in 2010 with the S&P 500 leading the way with 12 of the last 14 days advancing. Wall Street analysts and strategists at Barron's and Bloomberg are once again unanimous on the prospects for an up year despite the 60-80% advances off the March '09 lows for the major indices. This kind of complacency is already factored into the Volatility Index (VIX) which has already entered a major area of support meaning the risk for downside volatility is high.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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