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Monday, January 4, 2010

Stock Market Weekly Update, January 4, 2010

The Week Ahead: The new year opens with the Nasdaq leading the way with a 43.89% gain in 09' led by Amazon.Com, Apple Computer, and Google. The S&P 500 gained 23.45% and the Dow Industrials returned 18.82%. Economic statistics generally have improved from year ago levels after the federal stimulus money with the exception being the continued downtrend in the employment numbers. Construction jobs have been hit hardest and likely will still be problematic in 2010. This Friday's Employment report could be the first positive reading since late in 2007.

Stocks to Watch: Conagra (CAG) is suing Dean Foods (DF) for trademark infringements, but neither stock was impacted much as both have had steady chart patterns for the past year. YRC Worldwide (YRCW), a trucking company announced a successful debt for equity exchange, but this is considered dilutive as the stock continued its poor performance. Wimm Bill Dann Foods (WBD), a Russian dairy products company was upgraded by CitiGroup despite its huge run-up the past 13 months. Intelli-Check (IDN) rallied strongly on prospects for its defense ID device.

Special Note: The January barometer will be in focus this month. Basically as January goes so goes the year, but it did not work in '09. A better predictor could be the decennial pattern when the last year of a decade rallies. Typically the first year of the new decade is a down year as evidenced by 7 of the past 11 decades in the Dow Industrials. Even more interesting is that of the last 11 decades, the first year or '0' year prices have exceeded the low of the '9' year 8 times or 73% of the time going back to 1900. It last occurred in 1980. Is it due to happen in 2010?

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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