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Monday, November 8, 2010

Weekly Market Newsletter 11-8-2010

The Week Ahead: The unemployment rate remained unchanged while pending home sales fell 1.8% after expectations were for it to rise 3%. Still, markets were undeterred and rose 3% or more last week. A quiet reporting week relative to last week starts Tuesday with the ICSC Index which will track the major retail chain store sales followed by the Wholesale Trade numbers. Wednesday, markets get a look at the International Trade figures and Jobless Claims. Thursday is Veteran's Day but stock markets are open. Friday, Consumer Sentiment and Money Supply reports are released.

Stocks to Watch: Earnings from the financial sector beat all other sectors with a 95% increase in Q3 as the lagging KBW Bank ETF (KBE) rose to its highest level since early August. Conversely, telecom sector earnings fell by 9%. Sprint Nextel (S ) sank to its August lows on fears that mobile provider Clearwire (CLWR) which provides a 4th generation mobile network to Sprint could fail as its cash will last only to the middle of next year unless further credit is secured. Massey Energy (MEE), 6 months after its mining disaster, is the subject of takeover rumors with at least 3 mining companies interested.

Special Note: U.S. stock indexes broke above their April highs with the exception of the S&P 100 (OEX) and Russell 2000. Confirmation from all averages would imply a new cycle breakout starting from the July low that may carry into next year with the bullish seasonal bias from November to January. A note of caution though is the Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) for S&P traders which at 94% bulls nears a 4 year extreme, and the percentage of bulls minus bears near 30% is the highest since the bear market began in 2007 (American Association of Individual Investors). Also, company insiders are selling at a pace not seen since 1990.

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